Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.