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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime strugglers ascending together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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