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Just 48 hours to go.

England's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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