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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.