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Well. On one hand, the nation's protracted campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference obstructed from the top if his administration led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.